Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.002254 9.440141 11.017912 12.871754 14.984107 17.309711 20.057265
2025-02-09 5.774620 7.712591 10.061853 13.091042 16.862173 21.369143 27.126202
2025-02-16 4.257080 6.347659 9.111458 12.966002 18.125683 24.709032 33.644793
2025-02-23 3.163558 5.219877 8.159941 12.553331 18.811942 27.247808 39.284173
2025-03-02 2.367487 4.299941 7.272240 12.001707 19.122772 29.191898 44.187557
2025-03-09 1.894382 3.753718 6.806257 11.937403 20.038760 31.965563 50.371294
2025-03-16 1.507633 3.253654 6.306498 11.711857 20.631420 34.257420 55.973927
2025-03-23 1.337285 3.099519 6.344890 12.338143 22.582331 38.694317 65.025795
2025-03-30 1.132574 2.828893 6.125188 12.478940 23.730269 41.945363 72.458404
2025-04-06 0.952352 2.563632 5.865148 12.499516 24.652960 44.875443 79.546961
2025-04-13 0.799084 2.318147 5.597705 12.459746 25.445380 47.621676 86.482329
2025-04-20 0.750204 2.304505 5.795298 13.322746 27.912963 53.307458 98.518348
2025-04-27 0.676335 2.217434 5.835878 13.904461 29.961552 58.495373 110.177026
2025-05-04 0.607005 2.125826 5.854068 14.447192 31.994830 63.811410 122.402404
2025-05-11 0.511917 1.935927 5.614579 14.417451 32.920665 67.229124 131.576791
2025-05-18 0.412895 1.701608 5.223459 14.001347 33.033238 69.171543 138.274360
2025-05-25 0.324623 1.467775 4.783885 13.407702 32.712737 70.270669 143.508811
2025-06-01 0.272693 1.336693 4.585049 13.341067 33.471586 73.429709 152.612024
2025-06-08 0.223511 1.195376 4.327871 13.094507 33.813474 75.796405 160.368769
2025-06-15 0.208869 1.184034 4.441502 13.783293 36.258079 82.404302 176.341520
2025-06-22 0.181703 1.109577 4.351927 13.938135 37.514772 86.716619 188.166804
2025-06-29 0.155336 1.026757 4.219208 13.960795 38.468013 90.467198 199.090737
2025-07-06 0.131563 0.944389 4.069909 13.917127 39.258856 93.924612 209.602544